Near-term deaths likely to trend upward


Prior to the current increase in hospitalizations the eight "summer wave" states (AL, AZ, FL, GA, MS, NV, SC, & TX) have had two others. In each of these other two cases, the number of deaths started to rise sharply four weeks after hospitalizations started to increase.


We are now at the four-week mark of the current spike in hospitalizations. I want to believe that history will not repeat itself. But if it is true that the vast majority of hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated, then absent some other advancement in treatment, I am struggling to come to another conclusion.


My hope is that those currently in hospitals aren't as badly off as those who have been hospitalized in the past, but that's just a hope. I haven't seen any evidence of it.

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