The Implications of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally for Holiday Gatherings

A number of people have asked my opinion about the implications of COVID-19 for the holidays. Based on a question from a good friend, I've come up with a way to answer that question to allow you to form your own opinion; which has been my goal with most of my COVID-19 research.

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was held August 6 - 15. It was attended by an estimated 365,000 people. I've attached a video that steps through the hospitalizations per 100,000 state residents from August 1 - November 21 for the entire country. About a month after the rally things began to deteriorate in South Dakota and the surrounding states and continued to do so for a couple more months. Please consider the potential implications. Millions of people are likely to get together inside with their extended families for Thanksgiving. If Sturgis is a valid example, then we may not really begin to see the impact of those gatherings until mid-to-late December. The apparent lack of consequences from Thanksgiving may lead families to conclude getting together for Christmas and other holidays won't be that bad. If that chain-of-events holds, then we have two nationwide super-spreader events on top of one another. I don't really want to believe that. I want to think that everyone can enjoy the holidays, and everything is going to be okay. But I can't convince myself of it. Please take the video into your considerations.

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