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The Pace of Increased COVID-19 Hospitalizations Slowed on Nov. 12

Two days ago hospitalizations due to COVID-19 Increased so rapidly they matched the worst case scenario, which was an unpleasant surprise. Hopefully, the reduced pace we saw yesterday (The flattening of the white line) you see in the above chart will continue. Increases in hospitalizations fluctuate by day of week. They tend to increase more on Tuesdays and Wednesdays than they do over the weekend. So, a slowing pace would be consistent with that.

I haven't modeled it this way because I thought it would create a false sense of precision, but I may re-consider if it becomes a factor in the impression it creates. As a final note, COVID's weekly pattern played into the concern that led to the creation of this model. Increases in COVID-19 hospitalizations on Sundays have been rare except during the spring and summer peaks. They increased the past two Sundays; by 138 on November 1 and 976 on November 8. I'll call that trend out in my assessment of the weekend in Monday's post.


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