COVID Triple Prediction Coming to Pass


It appears my triple prediction that hospitalizations would rise toward the end of June, that deaths would not rise proportionally, and that it all would be attributed to a variant are all coming true.


The attached chart plots per capita hospitalizations for what I term the "Summer Wave" states. These are the eight states that were hit the hardest last summer. Notice the repeat of last year's pattern.


I'm not cherry picking. This year's hospitalizations match those of last year for the fall and spring wave states too.


As for Delta, at any given point in time there is a variant in decline and another in ascension. As cases rise, there is 100% certainty you can blame a variant for it. Yes, we will likely need a booster shot, but a year and a half ago Robert Redfield, the Director of the CDC, told us COVID was going to be just like the seasonal flu.


That, the need for a booster shot seems like breaking news testifies to just how poorly the COVID-19 pandemic has been reported.


Fortunately, the summer wave states have not yet seen a rise in deaths. The rise will come, but, it will be muted because deaths per hospitalization have fallen 50% from a peak in early March this year due to the fact those who are vulnerable to the illness have disproportionately sought to be vaccinated.

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