Dear CDC: You can't claim to be making analytically-sound policy recommendations if your scientific inquiry is dedicated to a fraction of the issue at hand. This BBC interview with Dr. Fauci confirms everything I feared about its decision-making process. Around the 5 minute mark Dr. Fauci concedes that we'll never know if the CDC's recommended restrictions struck the "right balance" between fighting COVID and the "unintended consequences" of these policies' impact on educatio

A high school graduate with the right mental framework for analyzing a situation can come to better conclusions than a thinktank loaded with geniuses using the wrong framework. A lot of the analysts predicting COVID trends used the wrong framework. So, I was able to assess trends more accurately than most, despite having no background in the subject. Here's an article from May of 2020 that is a good summary for how I look at this war. The foundation for the article is a frame