I'll start with the bad news. March 24 marked Italy's second highest death toll during the entire SARS-CoV-2 crisis. Disappointing doesn't cover it, but there was an encouraging sign as well. New cases have been below the peak set on March 21 for three consecutive days. Some other Western countries have recently had lower new case counts as well, but to my eye, Italy's seems the most likely to be more than just random variation. This provides some early, hopeful evidence a lo
Okay, the headline is a bit of an exaggeration, but only by so much. It is being reported that New York is the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic. Part of the reason for that is that 26% (79,000) of all US tests have been conducted there. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Ohio where only 582 people have been tested. This is just another instance of the need to understand how data are collected in order to be able to accurately determine what they actually mean.
Introduction There is a great deal of confusion and disagreement about the current severity and future course of the coronavirus. The speed at which this crisis is evolving, the economic and social cost of the countermeasures, the risks of being wrong, and the lack of data have created a perfect storm of uncertainty. We don't have agreement on critical information like the current extent of the virus, its communicability, or its fatality rate. So, experienced analysts have cr