And today's award for the outstanding achievement in analytical myopia goes to the Wall Street Journal for its article pondering why cases are falling in Los Angeles, CA without mentioning the words "weather," "temperature," or "sunlight" even one time.
File under, "If COVID-19 reporting were like The Academy Awards."
As a researcher, I've come to the view that people are more rational than many give them credit for. https://bit.ly/3ggfcbc This recent poll shows that 33% of Americans are somewhere between "Wait and See" and "Definitely Not" in regard to the COVID-19 vaccine. Yet, as of today, 80% of people 65 and over have already received at least one shot. How can we reconcile that? People can evaluate risks for themselves. Older people know they are at the greatest risk. On the opposite
This is addendum to a prior post. The CDC projected over a month ago that hospitalizations would rise in Michigan faster than any other state. Couple of things. 1) its failure to increase Michigan's vaccine allocation wasn't a failure of analytics, 2) CDC decision-makers were either unaware of these forecasts, didn't believe them, didn't think they were important, or didn't want to go to the trouble of making potentially unpopular decisions. This is a dereliction of duty and
Any way you look at it, Michigan's new cases are significantly greater than any other state's even when trying to adjust for age, vaccinations, prior infections, etc. But I have an idea why. As with Californians in December, Michiganders are looking at rising hospitalizations and deciding to get on with life regardless. The attached chart is based on data from the Michigan Department of Transportation. It shows that people staying at home are back to 2019 levels. Maybe, they'
The US' vaccine strategy is overly simplistic, inflexible, and is costing lives and needlessly extending the duration of the pandemic. It's as if FEMA distributed hurricane relief funds proportionately to state populations.
Over the summer I demonstrated to a number of audiences the regular patterns of second and third waves of this pandemic. First, the rate of decreases in hospitalizations from the prior wave starts to slow. Then hospitalizations start to rise slowly. Then