In an earlier post I expressed my hope that California would escape the worst of this crisis. I'm not alone in this. The model of the Institute for Hospital Metrics and Evaluation (the one quoted most often by the White House) indicates the peak of the crisis occurred 5 days ago (April 18). The Model Consortium of The University of Texas at Austin puts the odds that California has passed its peak at 72%. But I am no longer as optimistic as I was, nor as these models indicate.
Introduction I don't recall another time of my life when computer models have occupied so much of the national conversation. The model we talk about most often was created by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of The University of Washington (IHME). In the US it is given credit, more so than any other model, for helping shape US policy regarding SARS-CoV2. It's not universally loved. Many have criticized it for having made the pandemic seem like a larger problem
I read a lot about Digital Transformations but haven't seen a definition that really seems to fit the bill. So here's mine. In the consumer arena, a Digital Transformation has occurred when Marketing, Analytics, IT, Customer Service, and Operations are meaningfully aligned toward a common, measurable vision to increase the current and future profitability of a company's customer base such that the lines between who is contributing what have become blurred. My thought here is
An update to my prior post. I stand by the substance of the post that New York has not seen a clear peak, but I found a better way to express the reasoning. The COVID Tracking Project has been capturing the number of patients in ICU's in New York State (and a handful of other states). On a day-to-day basis the percentage of ICU patients who die in NY State varies between 12 - 17%. That introduces a lot of volatility to the analysis. We can get a clearer picture of the severit
The most visible model for projecting deaths from SARS-CoV2 is that of The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington (IMHE). Their model calls for deaths in New York State to peak today and decline from here on out. I don't think that's what's going to happen. Deaths are likely to stay this high for at least a week. Some days will be higher than today and some days will be lower. I base this conclusion on the strong relationship between the n
I have to say I've been thinking states like Florida, California, and Texas represent a sort of ticking time bomb and that when wide-scale testing becomes available, we'll see another ramp of cases. Now I'm questioning that point-of-view. The chart below demonstrates the percent of all SARS-CoV2 tests that have returned positive results for all states that have administered 10,000 or more tests. This differences across the states are striking. Over 40% of those tested in M