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Vaccines are about Age

The main differentiator of who's not getting vaccinated isn't politics. It's age. Over 80% of those over 65 have received one dose. For those aged 40-49, it's 52%, and the growth is slowing. I'd be surprised if it gets to 60% before the summer. 18-29? It may flatten before it gets to 40-45%.

We have to face the fact our vaccination program isn't going to get us to "herd immunity," which should have been expected all along. Anyone in marketing or economics knows that incentives matter. Anticipating behavior and varying incentives to create a desired result is how we earn a living.

Younger people have orders of magnitude less incentive to get vaccinated as older people do. Their behavior shouldn't be a matter of surprise or dismay. It's exactly how people would be expected to respond in a free society.

As a consequence, we'll potentially see a rise in cases in the summer in the South and just about everywhere in the fall and winter. Due to the vaccination program and other factors, deaths will not rise proportionately. Our nation's leaders need to stop wringing their hands, treat the nation's people like adults by setting their expectations properly, and let us get on with life.


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