Vaccine Strategy is Overly Simplistic


The US' vaccine strategy is overly simplistic, inflexible, and is costing lives and needlessly extending the duration of the pandemic. It's as if FEMA distributed hurricane relief funds proportionately to state populations. Over the summer I demonstrated to a number of audiences the regular patterns of second and third waves of this pandemic. First, the rate of decreases in hospitalizations from the prior wave starts to slow. Then hospitalizations start to rise slowly. Then a few weeks later they accelerate greatly. This has proven to be true time after time in state after state and country after country. That crossover occurred in Michigan the first week of March. Plenty of time to divert vaccines that would have helped make the current crisis less severe. The Biden administration indicated they can't divert vaccines to Michigan because they don't know where the next flareup will be. That's like a military commander saying they have no basis for how to deploy their troops. The military is practiced at making decisions with incomplete information., Why isn't the CDC? It's difficult to explain to clients how a single person can inform decision-making better than a room full of analysts, but it's not really that unusual.



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