Vaccine Strategy is Overly Simplistic
The US' vaccine strategy is overly simplistic, inflexible, and is costing lives and needlessly extending the duration of the pandemic....
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Feb 3, 20211 min read
The Vaccine May Already be Helping!
COVID-19 newly-confirmed case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply in the US. No one seems to know why. My working theory is...
Feb 2, 20211 min read
COVID Update February 2021
Last Thursday I delivered a talk on COVID-19 to the members of the Institute for Innovation in Large Organizations. It was very well...
Dec 19, 20201 min read
Predicting COVID's Direction with Three Lines
This is a simple representation that captures the essence of the direction COVID-19 is taking in the US. The lines in the attached chart...
Dec 17, 20203 min read
Thoughts on Current COVID-19 Trends
Here are my current thoughts on trends in the COVID-19 pandemic. First thing is that I made some predictions early last month. Two...
Dec 16, 20201 min read
CDC's Near-Term Death Estimates Epitomize Analytical Failures
The CDC’s consensus estimate for near-term deaths from COVID-19 is an ongoing demonstration for why many corporate analytics projects...
Dec 10, 20201 min read
COVID-19 Policies are Built on a Flawed Foundation
Many political leaders frame their COVID-19 policies as a choice between lives and "business." Science and basic planning principles...
Nov 25, 20201 min read
Impact on COVID-19 of Wearing Masks, Population Density and Mass Gatherings
I offer the following as a step forward in measuring the value of wearing masks in public. Although one's choice to wear a mask actually...
Nov 23, 20201 min read
Sturgis Indicates Danger for Upcoming Holiday Gatherings
A number of people have asked my opinion about the implications of COVID-19 for the holidays. Based on a question from a good friend,...
Nov 18, 20202 min read
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Accelerate Again
In the first few days following the creation of my projections on November 8, the number of actual hospitalizations rose to match the...
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